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References

State Traffic
Model NRW

Initial Situation

The Ministry of Transport of the State of North Rhine-Westphalia commissioned the consortium of PTV Transport Consult GmbH, PTV Planung Transport Verkehr GmbH, and SSP Consult GmbH to develop a multimodal macroscopic traffic model for North Rhine-Westphalia.

Task

Based on the model calculations, which include activity choice, destination choice, multimodal mode choice, and route choice, a calibrated base year scenario for 2015 and a traffic forecast with the primary forecast target year 2035 are to be developed, calculating the DTVw5 (average daily traffic on weekdays). The traffic model is intended to support both operational and strategic planning in the areas of road traffic and public transport.

Approach

  1. Definition of the study area, traffic zones, and structural data: 
    Define the study area, surrounding area, and extended surroundings; define traffic zones (boundaries, evaluation considerations); review traffic zone classification; collect, research, and allocate structural data; update external traffic flows.
     
  2. Traffic supply model: 
    Compile and prepare data; process car (IV), public transport (ÖV), and bicycle models; link surrounding area and NRW model; develop the network model (attribution, connections).
     
  3. Development of the traffic demand model: 
    Segment demand; check marginal totals; calculate trip generation; implement destination and mode choice model; calculate route choice; achieve equilibrium and convergence.
     
  4. Calibration of the traffic model: 
    Develop a calibration tool; upscale commuter data; integrate external evaluation matrices; calibrate and validate demand calculations; assign trips for car and public transport.
     
  5. Development of the freight traffic model: 
    Process freight flow data; allocate trips across truck size categories; develop passenger car freight traffic model.
     
  6. Development of the traffic forecast: 
    Incorporate structural data; apply network changes; integrate traffic count (QZ) data; calculate forecasted demand and assignment.

Results

With the completed traffic model, the State of North Rhine-Westphalia now has a statewide model for calculating traffic impacts. The model can also be used as a reference for planning regional mobility concepts.