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References

State Traffic
Model Bavaria

Initial Situation

The Free State of Bavaria, represented by the Autobahn Directorate of Southern Bavaria, commissioned the consortium of PTV Transport Consult GmbH, PTV Planung Transport Verkehr GmbH, and Prognos AG to develop a macroscopic traffic model for the state of Bavaria.

Task

The traffic model is intended to support both operational and strategic planning in the field of road traffic, enabling the assessment of the impacts of infrastructure and traffic management measures as well as short- and long-term structural changes. In addition to implementing the traffic model for the base year 2010, a forecast for the year 2030 is developed.

The overall Bavarian State Traffic Model system is built modularly. The modules are:

  • Central database as a storage unit for all datasets and results
  • Spatial structure model providing structural data for analysis and forecast calculations of the traffic model
  • Integration of the database with the intranet
  • Macroscopic traffic model for motorized individual traffic (MIV) and public transport (ÖV)
  • User interface linking the modules (database, spatial structure model, and traffic model)

Approach

  • Development of the spatial structure data model:
    Creation of the basic traffic zone system, incorporation of basic structural data, and consideration of singular traffic generators.
     
  • Development of the traffic model: 
    Integration of extended spatial structure data, evaluation of traffic surveys, network models, matrix generation models, integration of external models, assignment and calibration of models, and consistency checks with other models.
     
  • Creation of the 2030 traffic forecast

Results

With the available traffic model, the State of North Rhine-Westphalia now has a statewide model for assessing traffic impacts. The model can also be used as a reference for planning regional traffic concepts.